Mads Waatland Jakobsen

Mads Waatland Jakobsen

For this assignment I’ve used these variables, who I initially thought might have some correlation with birth rate (birth pr 1000): Percent of population which is Roman Catholic, Life expectancy, Death rate, GDP pr. Cap adjusted for purchasing power, urbanization, literacy (percent), gini coefficient,  expected school life (years) and state expenditure on education.

The countries I used are Mexico, Spain, Italy, Venezuela,  Brazil, Ireland, Norway, Finland and Estonia. The first six have a roman catholic population over 65% and the three last have a roman catholic population under 5%.  The data used is primarily from CIA - World Fact Book, the OECD database and some from the World Bank.

I’ve used the software SPSS to predict significance and correlation between the independent variable and the dependent ones through regression analysis and bivariate           correlation analysis. One problem is that the population is so small, that I might not get results with enough significance, so some of my findings may have a higher significance than what the scientific norm presupposes.

Firstly, to examine whether less birth control equals higher birth rate, I have checked birth rate up with catholic population and it is clearly a trend that the countries with the lowest population of catholics have in general lower birthrates. It seems that the catholic countries have a higher birthrate, with the exception of Italy and Spain. I believe that the 14% significance would be lower with a higher number of countries.

I also found a correlation between years in school and birth rate. More years in school equals lower birth rate. The outlier is Ireland with both a high birthrate and school life. The significance is almost at the scientific norm, and given I have a too few countries I consider this significant.

There is also a correlation between literacy and and birthrate. The more literate the population are, the lower the birthrate. Ireland is again a bit of an outlier. With high literacy and rater high birthrate.

The gini coefficient, with describe income equality, also correlates with birthrate. The higher gini, (income inequality) the higher the birth rate.

The regression analysis shows that all variables but Catholicism and School life lowers the birthrate (with all other variables at 0, birthrate would be 262.896. For every value increase of 1, the birth rate increases or decreases with the values of Beta). Since the population don’t represent the universe in any way,I think School life expectancy significance is way too high, I would not include it in my findings. With a comprehensive database of all nations I’m sure that I would find that more years in school lowers birthrate, as shown in the bivariate analysis.

Henrik S. Andersen

Is less birth control causing increased birth rates?

In this paper I wanted to know if decreased use of birth control as a nation due to Catholism will lead to increased birth rate. And to figure this out I went on the internet and found a site which had a lot of statistical data of many countries around the world. I chose, for my six Catholic countries, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Brazil, Mexico and Chile. And for my three non-Catholic countries , I chose Norway, Sweden and Denmark.  In the bottom of this paper I will include the figures for the data I found .

As a requirement, the Catholic countries had to have at least 65% of the population to be Catholic, and for the non-Catholic countries there had to be less than 5%.

For finding out if it is the Catholic ban on birth control that are causing increased birth rate or if it is something else, I chose the same six variables for each country. The variables are religion, birth rate, infant mortality rate, life expectancy, school life expectancy and GDP per capita income (PPP) .

If you just look at the correlation between the variables religion and birth rate, you will not find any conclusive data. Where mexico, Brazil and Chile are all Catholic countries and have a high birth rate   (Ranging from 14.28 birth / 1000 people in Chile to 18.87 births / 1000 people in Mexico). The countries Italy, Spain and Portugal all have relatively low birth rate (Ranging from 9.06 births /1000 people In Italy to 10.4 births / 1000 people in Spain). In the non-Catholic countries the birth rate ranging from 10.21 births/ 1000 people in Sweden to 10.8 births / 1000 people in Norway with Denmark in the middle with 10.22 

births /1000 people.

If you add the variable infant mortality rate, you will find more interesting data. In all for the three countries with the highest birth rate , you will find that the infant mortality rate Is significantly higher than the countries with lower birth rate. The infant mortality rate in Brazil, Chile and Mexico are ranging from 7.36 deaths /1000 births in Chile to 20.5 deaths /1000 births in Brazil. In the other six countries the infant mortality rate never went over 4.6 deaths /1000 births . And one thing to note is that Chile has a lot lower infant mortality rate then Brazil and Mexico and also has a lower birth rate, even though its higher than the other six.

When it comes to the last three variables , I chose these as a way to tell how advanced the different countries are , and I found out that the three countries with the highest birth rate scores the lowest on the variables life expectancy, school life expectancy and GDP per capita. And on the other side the six countries with lower birth rate scored higher on every variable. And again you find Chile scoring higher then Brazil and Mexico, but not as high as the other six.

As conclusion, my findings are that religion doesn’t have much to say in the birth rate issue. But what HAS something to say is how advanced a country is. With more advanced technology and information, the infant mortality rate goes down, more people go to school, and study longer , lives longer and will earn more money and the need of kids to eventually  take care of you when you grows older decreased as the society grows “bigger and better”

Mexico:

Religion: 76.5% Catholic

Birth rate: 18.87 births /1000

Infant mortality rate: 16.77 death / 1000 births

Life expectancy : 76.66 years

School life expectancy: 14 years

GDP/ppp: 14.800$ (2011)

Italy:

Religion:  80% Christian (overwhelming catholic)

Birth rate:  9.06 births / 1000

Infant mortality rate:  3.36 deaths / 1000 births

Life expectancy: 81.86 years

School life expectancy: 16 years

GDP/ppp: 30.900$ (2011)

Spain:

Religion: 94% Catholic

Birth rate:  10.4 births / 1000

Infant mortality rate:  3.37 deaths /1000 births

Life expectancy: 81.27 Years

School life expectancy: 16 years

GDP/ppp: 31.000$ (2011)                     

Portugal:

Religion: 84.5 % Catholic

Birth rate:  9.76 births / 1000

Infant mortality rate : 4.6 deaths / 1000 births

Life expectancy: 78.7 Years

School life expectancy: 16 years

GDP/ppp: 23.700$ (2011)

Brazil:

Religion: 73.6% Catholic

Birth rate: 17.48 births / 1000

Infant mortality rate:  20.5 deaths / 1000 births

Life expectancy : 72.79 Years

School life expectancy: 14 years

GDP/ppp: 11.900$ (2011)

Chile:

Religion : 70% Catholic

Birth rate: 14.28 births / 1000

Infant mortality rate: 7.36 deaths / 1000 births

Life expectancy : 78.1 Years

School life expectancy: 15 years

GDP/ppp: 17.400$ (2011)

Outgroup:

Norway:

Religion:  85.7% Evangelical Lutheran

Birth rate: 10.8 births / 1000

Infant mortality rate: 3.5 deaths / 1000 births

Life expectancy: 80.32 Years

School life expectancy: 17 years

GDP/ppp: 54.200$ (2011)

Sweden :

Religion: 87% Lutheran

Birth rate:  10.24 births / 1000

Death rate: 10.21 deaths / 1000

Infant mortality rate: 2.74 deaths / 1000 births

Life expectancy : 81.18 Years

School life expectancy: 16 years

GDP/ppp: 40.900$ (2011)

Denmark:

Religion: 95% Evangelical Lutheran

Birth rate:  10.22 births / 1000

Infant mortality rate: 4.19 deaths / 1000 births

Life expectancy: 78.78 Years

School life expectancy: 17 years

GDP/ppp: 37.600$ (2011)

Michael Kirkilevich

Michael Kirkilevich                                                                         Sociology 166

SID: 21977717                                                                                           10.30.12

                                                Assignment #3- Birth Rate Correlates

Hypothesis: High rate of Catholics causes a high birthrate

Over 65% Catholicism:

Ireland:

Percentage of Catholics: 87.4%

Birth Rates: 15.81/1,000 individuals

Life Expectancy: 80.32

Literacy Rate: 99%

GDP Per Capita: 40,100

Italy:

Percentage of Catholics: 80%

Birth Rates: 9.06/1,000 individuals

Life Expectancy: 81.86 years

Literacy Rate: 98.4%

GDP Per Capita: $30,900

France:

Percentage of Catholics: 83%-88%

Birth Rates: 12.72/1,000 individuals

Life Expectancy: 81.46 years

Literacy Rate: 99%

GDP Per Capita: $35,600

Spain:

Percentage of Catholics: 94%

Birth Rates: 10.4/1,000 individuals

Life Expectancy: 81.27 years

Literacy Rate: 97.7%

GDP Per Capita: $31,000

Mexico:

Percentage of Catholics: 76.5%

Birth Rates: 18.87/1,000 individuals

Life Expectancy: 76.66 years

Literacy Rate: 86.1%

GDP Per Capita: $14,800

Columbia:

Percentage of Catholics: 90%

Birth Rates: 17.23/1000 individuals

Life Expectancy: 74.79 years

Literacy Rate: 90.4%

GDP Per Capita: $ 10,400

Outgroup (less than 5% Catholic):

Russia:

Percentage of Catholics: <2%

Birth Rates: 10.94/1,000 individuals

Life Expectancy: 66.46 years

Literacy Rate: 99.6%

GDP Per Capita: $17,000

Sweden:

Percentage of Catholics: 1.62%

Birth Rates: 10.24/1000 individuals

Life Expectancy: 81.18 years

Literacy Rate: 99%

GDP Per Capita: 40,900

Latvia:

Percentage of Catholics: <1%

Birth Rates: 9.97/1000 individuals

Life Expectancy: 72.93 years

Literacy Rate: 99.8%

GDP Per Capita: 15,900

            Although it may be upon popular beliefs that religion plays a large role in birth rates of a nation, it is definitely not the only factor that plays into account in birth rate factors. Religion is just one of many factors, and through my research have found that it is not strongly positively correlated, in this case the Catholic religion with high birth rates. There are countries high Catholic populations that have high birthrates, for instance Colombia, and then you have a highly populated Catholic country in Italy with a very little birth rate. There seems to be too much variation within the high Catholic populated countries with birthrates for the Catholic religion to be deemed a strong correlator to higher birthrates.

            Since religion is just one of many factors playing a role in birth rates, other factors play significant roles, and through research using the CIA World Factbook, I was able to find other factors that positively correlated higher. For instance, countries with high literacy rates seem to have lower birth rates, than countries with low literacy rates and high birth rates, as can be seen through Latvia (high literacy/low birth rate) and Mexico (low literacy/high birth rate). In addition, in countries with high infant and maternal mortality rates, there is also a positive correlation with high birth rates. In addition to these positive correlators to birth rates, GDP/Capita also. Countries that have higher GDP/capita seem to have lower birth rates than countries that have low GDP/Capita, as can be seen with Colombia/Mexico (low GDP, high birthrate) and Italy/Spain

            In conclusion, through my research I believe that it is not religion, but other key factors that seem to play a role on birth rates. The birth rates are tied into the social world of the country in it, including its economics and education levels as well as other lower factors such as religion. Catholicism is just one of many religions that play roles on birth rates, and there are other factors that seem to be of more importance to birth rate determinism. Simply saying religion is the only reason is being ignorant and ill-informed.

Teran Faust

Teran Faust

Assignment #3

Birthrate Correlates

Catholic Countries:

Argentina:
Population: 42,192,494
Catholics: 92%
Birth rate: 17.34 births/1,000
Infant mortality rate: 10.52 deaths/1,000
Education: 4.9% of GDP
Population below poverty line: 30%

Spain:
Population: 47,042,984
Catholics: 94%
Birth rate: 10.4 births/1,000
Infant mortality rate: 3.37 deaths/1,000
Education: 4.3% of GDP
Population below poverty line: 19.8%

Poland:
Population: 38,415,284
Catholics: 89.8%
Birthrate: 9.96 births/1,000
Infant mortality rate: 6.42 deaths/1,000
Education: 4.9% of GDP
Population below poverty line: 17%

France:

      Population: 65,630,692

      Catholics: 83-88%

      Birth rate: 12.72 births/1000

      Infant mortality rate: 3.37 deaths/1,000

      Education:  5.6% of GDP

Population below poverty line: 6.2%

Mexico:
Population: 114,975,406
Catholics: 76.5%
Birth rate: 18.87 births/1,000
Infant mortality rate: 16.77 deaths/1,000
Education: 4.8% of GDP
Population below poverty line: 51.3%

Ireland:

      Population: 4,722,028

      Catholics: 87.4%

      Birth rate: 15.81 births/1000 Population

      Infant mortality rate:  3.81 deaths/1000

      Education: 4.9% of GDP

      Population below poverty line: 5.5%

Non-Catholic Countries:

      Estonia:
Population: 1,274,709
Many Religions, < 5% Catholics
Birth rate: 10.43 births/1,000
Infant mortality rate: 6.94 deaths/1,000
Education: 4.9% of GDP
Population below poverty line: 17.5%

Jamaica:

      Population: 2,889,187

      Catholics: 2.6%

      Birth rate: 18.89 births/1000

      Infant Mortality Rate: 14.3 deaths/1000

      Education: 5.8% of GDP

      Population below poverty line: 16.5%

     

      Bangladesh:
Population: 161,083,804
Muslim: 89.5%, < 5% Catholics
Birthrate: 22.53 births/1,000
Infant mortality rate: 48.99 deaths/1,000
Education: 2.4% of GDP
Population below poverty line: 31,51%

Conclusion:

           After analyzing religion in correlation with birth rates in these nine countries, I have found no evidence of higher birth rates in Catholic countries.  When looking at the data, one can see that the non-Catholic countries I chose have about the same if not higher birth rates than most of the Catholic countries.  Therefore, the thesis that religion correlates with birth rate appears to be false.

           What I found to be more influential on birth rate is the amount of population below the poverty line.  Countries with higher percentages of poverty seem to have higher birth rates.  This makes sense because birth control methods and developments cost money, and are therefore less available to people in poverty.  I also found it interesting that Bangladesh spent the least on education and has the highest birth rate, while the other countries, which spend more on education, seem to have a more moderate birth rate.  This could be because more people are educated about the risks involved in sex and birth control, while Bangladesh doesn’t seem to think as much about restricting childbirth.

           Overall, religion had probably the least to do with birth rate modulation, making me think that religions that are against birth control contraceptives might use their beliefs as more of a natural birth control.  This would constrict the birth rate in a way that makes it balance out with religions that aren’t against birth control, making religion more or less irrelevant in correlation with birthrates.

Dega Gebre

Dega Gebre

Soc. 166

Contributing Factors to Birth Control

                The six countries that I have chosen to analyze are countries with an extremely high percentage of citizens whom identify themselves as Catholic or practice the Catholic religion. The countries and stats that I analyzed are below in a bullet point format for simplicity. There were many statistics to choose from, so I chose the statistics that I believed were most relevant and helpful in deciphering whether or not countries having a high percentage of Catholicism correlate to having a high birthrate. My findings are listed below:

Argentina:

·         Population: 42,192,494

·         % of Population Catholic: 92-93%

·         Birth Rate: 17.34 births/1000 Population

·         Total Births/Woman: 2.29

·         Life Expectancy at Birth: 77.14 yrs.

·         Infant Mortality Rate: 10.52 Deaths/1000 Births

·         Population Below Poverty Line: 30%

·         Literacy (age 15 and older who can read and write): 97.2%

France:

·         Population: 65,630,692

·         % of Population Catholic: 83-88%

·         Birth Rate: 12.72 births/1000 Population

·         Total Births/Woman: 2.08

·         Life Expectancy at Birth: 81.46 yrs.

·         Infant Mortality Rate: 3.37 Deaths/1000 Births

·         Population Below Poverty Line: 6.2%

·         Literacy (age 15 and older who can read and write): 99%

Ireland:

·         Population: 4,722,028

·         % of Population Catholic: 87.4%

·         Birth Rate: 15.81 births/1000 Population

·         Total Births/Woman: 2.01

·         Life Expectancy at Birth: 80.32 yrs.

·         Infant Mortality Rate:  3.81 Deaths/1000 Births

·         Population Below Poverty Line: 5.5%

·         Literacy (age 15 and older who can read and write): 99%

Mexico:

·         Population: 114,975,406

·         % of Population Catholic: 76.5%

·         Birth Rate: 18.87 births/1000 Population

·         Total Births/Woman: 2.27

·         Life Expectancy at Birth: 76.66 yrs.

·         Infant Mortality Rate: 16.77  Deaths/1000 Births

·         Population Below Poverty Line: 51.3%

·         Literacy (age 15 and older who can read and write): 86.1%

Poland:

·         Population: 38,415,284

·         % of Population Catholic: 89.8%

·         Birth Rate: 9.96 births/1000 Population

·         Total Births/Woman: 1.31

·         Life Expectancy at Birth: 76.25 yrs.

·         Infant Mortality Rate:  6.42 Deaths/1000 Births

·         Population Below Poverty Line: 17%

·         Literacy (age 15 and older who can read and write): 99.5%

Spain:

·         Population: 47,042,984

·         % of Population Catholic: 94%

·         Birth Rate: 10.4 births/1000 Population

·         Total Births/Woman: 1.48

·         Life Expectancy at Birth: 81.27 yrs.

·         Infant Mortality Rate:  3.37 Deaths/1000 Births

·         Population Below Poverty Line: 19.8%

·         Literacy (age 15 and older who can read and write): 97.7%

Three Countries with Less Than 5% Catholics:

Eritrea:

·         Population: 6,086,495

·         % of Population Catholic: 3.34%

·         Birth Rate: 32.1 births/1000 Population

·         Total Births/Woman: 4.37

·         Life Expectancy at Birth: 62.86 yrs.

·         Infant Mortality Rate: 40.34 Deaths/1000 Births

·         Population Below Poverty Line: 50%

·         Literacy (age 15 and older who can read and write): 67.8%

Jamaica:

·         Population: 2,889,187

·         % of Population Catholic: 2.6%

·         Birth Rate: 18.89 births/1000 Population

·         Total Births/Woman: 2.12

·         Life Expectancy at Birth: 73.43 yrs.

·         Infant Mortality Rate: 14.3  Deaths/1000 Births

·         Population Below Poverty Line: 16.5%

·         Literacy (age 15 and older who can read and write): 87.9%

Indonesia:

·         Population: 248,645,008

·         % of Population Catholic: 3%

·         Birth Rate: 17.76 births/1000 Population

·         Total Births/Woman: 2.23

·         Life Expectancy at Birth: 71.62 yrs.

·         Infant Mortality Rate:  26.99 Deaths/1000 Births

·         Population Below Poverty Line: 12.5%

·         Literacy (age 15 and older who can read and write): 90.4

     I have used a wide array of information and data to justify my conclusion that there is no direct correlation between the prevalence of birth control and birth rates. Based on this conclusion, I can confidently assert that countries with a high Catholic population do not have higher birth rates due to lack of birth control. The notion that countries will have higher birth rates due to banning birth control can be seen to be proven wrong in this analysis. As a matter of fact, Spain, which has the highest percentage of Catholics within its population, has a lower birth rate per 1000 people than Mexico, which has the highest birth rate per 1000 people but the lowest percentage of Catholics in its population.

     Also, the proposed correlation is even more debunked when we take into account countries with less than 5% Catholics within their population. Jamaica, with only 2.6% of its population being Catholic, has roughly the same amount of births per 1000 people, 18.89 compared to Mexico’s 18.87.

     This discrepancy in the way of thinking and approaching such a topic leads me to make some correlations myself that I believe are justified through the data provided. It seems to me that countries with a high infant mortality rate have a higher birth rate, among countries with a large Catholic population. This statistic is even more pronounced when the countries with high infant mortality rates with large populations of Catholics are compared to the three countries with low populations of Catholics. Another correlation, although not as strong, is countries with a lower literacy rate then 95% seem to have higher birth rates. These statistics lead me to believe that lack of education in the relative fields and lack of adequate health institutions leads to higher birth rates, especially when compared to the seemingly false idea that countries with higher percentages of Catholicism have higher birth rates.

     Lastly, although there is a technologically conservative prohibition against birth control among Catholic populations, I do not believe that this prohibition really exists in behavior, for if it did, then the correlations would seem to be much stronger. However, as we have seen, there is not definitive correlation justifying such an idea. In behavior, condoms, which work as birth control to an extent, still allow couples and people to be sexually promiscuous, which is what seems the ban on contraception in Catholic leaning societies are striving for.